Over Under Win Totals Nfl
The NFL season is quietly approaching, and there are plenty of new faces in new places. New England will have a new quarterback for the first time in two decades after Tom Brady opted to leave via free agency and join the Buccaneers. And the Patriots, who have won 11 straight division titles, are not favorites to win the AFC East at Caesars Sportsbook.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are the last remaining undefeated team at 7-0 to start the season. Their 2020 NFL win total has jumped up to 13.5, which is the most on the oddsboard. The Steelers’ odds to win the Super Bowl have also skyrocketed to the second-best in the league. Nothing is set in the NFL and even the most educated bettor can’t predict a perfect over-under on win totals. However, you can put yourself in the best position to win such bets if you know what to do. Let’s explore 5 factors to consider when betting on NFL win totals. 1- Strength of Schedule. The 1st factor is the most important.
Patrick Mahomes and the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs remain the favorites to repeat at 4-1, and the 49ers are still the choice out of the NFC at +750 to win the big game. Brady's new team? They're 11-1 (the Pats are 20-1).
What do the odds look like for everyone else?
Here are the win totals, playoff, Super Bowl, conference and divisional odds for all 32 NFL teams.
Courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook (through Aug. 17)
To jump to each division, click here: AFC East AFC North AFC South AFC West NFC East NFC North NFC South NFC West
AFC East
New England Patriots (20-1 to win Super Bowl)
Odds to win AFC: 9-1
Division: +135
Over/under: 8.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -175, No +155
Buffalo Bills (25-1; opened 28-1)
Odds to win AFC: 10-1
Division: +100
Over/under: 9
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -175, No +155
New York Jets (100-1; opened 50-1)
Odds to win AFC: 40-1
Division: +900
Over/under: 6.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +370, No -460
Miami Dolphins (100-1)
Odds to win AFC: 40-1
Division: +850
Over/under: 6
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +450, No -600
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens (7-1; opened 8-1)
Odds to win AFC: 3-1
Division: -300
Over/under: 1.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -900, No +600
Pittsburgh Steelers (25-1; opened 28-1)
Odds to win AFC: 9-1
Division: +475
Over/under: 9
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -135, No +115
Cleveland Browns (35-1; opened 40-1)
Odds to win AFC: 18-1
Division: +450
Over/under: 8.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +105, No -125
Cincinnati Bengals (100-1)
Odds to win AFC: 45-1
Division: 35-1
Over/under: 5.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +650, No -1000
AFC South
Indianapolis Colts (25-1; opened 30-1)
Odds to win AFC: 11-1
Division: +130
Over/under: 9
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -170, No +150
Tennessee Titans (30-1)
Odds to win AFC: 13-1
Division: +140
Over/under: 8.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -140, No +120
Houston Texans (55-1; opened 50-1)
Odds to win AFC: 25-1
Division: +340
Over/under: 7.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +140, No -160
Jacksonville Jaguars (250-1; opened 125-1)
Odds to win AFC: 100-1
Division: 20-1
Over/under: 4.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +700, No -1100
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs (4-1)
Odds to win AFC: 2-1
Division: -425
Over/under: 12
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -1100, No +700
Las Vegas Raiders (30-1)
Odds to win AFC: 13-1
Division: 10-1
Over/under: 7.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +200, No -240
Los Angeles Chargers (45-1)
Odds to win AFC: 20-1
Division: 6-1
Over/under: 8
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +160, No -180
Denver Broncos (50-1)
Odds to win AFC: 20-1
Division: 10-1
Over/under: 7.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +185, No -220
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys (13-1; opened 11-1)
Odds to win NFC: 6-1
Division: -120
Over/under: 10
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -250, No +210
Philadelphia Eagles (20-1; opened 22-1)
Odds to win NFC: 9-1
Division: +130
Over/under: 9.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -180, No +160
New York Giants (50-1; opened 60-1)
Odds to win NFC: 22-1
Division: +850
Over/under: 6
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +380, No -480
Washington (150-1)
Odds to win NFC: 60-1
Division: 22-1
Over/under: 5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +750, No -1200
NFC North
Green Bay Packers (16-1)
Odds to win NFC: +750
Division: +170
Over/under: 9
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -135, No +115
Chicago Bears (50-1; opened 25-1)
Odds to win NFC: 20-1
Division: +325
Over/under: 8
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +155, No -175
Minnesota Vikings (28-1; opened 30-1)
Odds to win NFC: 13-1
Division: +155
Over/under: 9
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -125, No +105
Detroit Lions (60-1)
Odds to win NFC: 25-1
Division: 7-1
Over/under: 7
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +280, No -340
NFC South
New Orleans Saints (13-1; opened 14-1)
Odds to win NFC: +650
Division: -105
Over/under: 10.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -330, No +270
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-1; opened 17-1)
Odds to win NFC: +550
Division: +150
Over/under: 9.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -230, No +190
Carolina Panthers (125-1; opened 50-1)
Odds to win NFC: 50-1
Division: 11-1
Over/under: 5.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +525, No -750
Atlanta Falcons (60-1; opened 55-1)
Odds to win NFC: 25-1
Division: +650
Over/under: 7.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +200, No -240
NFC West
San Francisco 49ers (+750; opened 7-1)
Odds to win NFC: +350
Division: -115
Over/under: 10.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -325, No +265
Seattle Seahawks (12-1; opened 14-1)
Odds to win NFC: 7-1
Division: +250
Over/under: 9.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -125, No +105
Los Angeles Rams (30-1; opened 25-1)
Odds to win NFC: 13-1
Division: 5-1
Over/under: 8.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +150, No -170
Arizona Cardinals (60-1; opened 50-1)
Odds to win NFC: 25-1
Division: 6-1
Over/under: 7.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +205, No -245
Do you bet a team will win more than the 9 games they’re projected to win or under?
This article will answer that question. It will lay out examples you need to consider making educated bets on teams’ projected win totals so when you wager win totals, you will increase your odds of winning.
This article gives you a blueprint and the examples are not telling you who to bet on and who to stay away from. Instead, it will give you a blueprint to research specific factors that will affect a team’s win-loss record.
Nothing is set in the NFL and even the most educated bettor can’t predict a perfect over-under on win totals. However, you can put yourself in the best position to win such bets if you know what to do.
Let’s explore 5 factors to consider when betting on NFL win totals.
1- Strength of Schedule
The 1st factor is the most important. Analyze strength of schedule before you place a bet on either an over or under.
If a team projects somewhere in the 9-10 win column but they’re playing in a weak division plus the AFC and NFC division they’re slated to play is also weak…
They will probably win more than their allotted number of games.
You can say the same for teams slated to win that same number but are playing in the league’s toughest division and are playing a tougher AFC or NFC division.
In that case, you want to bet the under.
Strength of schedule is the overall indicator whether to bet the over or the under on projected win totals.
But there are other factors to consider that can show otherwise. I’m laying out 3 factors to consider before ending with a final factor you must consider.
2- Strength of Division
This one’s important. Suppose there are 3 solid teams playing in the same division and it has happened in the past.
There have been times the worst record in a division is 7-9, meaning all 4 teams can win. It also means all 4 teams can fall short of their odds.
Yes, 1 or 2 of those teams might reach and exceed their projected win total. It also means 1 or 2 won’t.
Instead, focus on teams whose divisions possess a larger discrepancy of team talent. If a rebuilding team or 2 are in the same division along with an above-average team, this could be a potential home run.
Especially if a team you’re targeting appears to have middle of the road talent. It’s likely this team will exceed their projected win total since 2 teams they’re playing will not win many games.
There are no guarantees, but a team like the Buffalo Bills are a good example of this in 2020. Per CBS sports, they’re projected to win 9 games. The New England Patriots are also sitting at 9.
The Bills, as evidenced in 2019, are on the rise.
They also traded for one of the better receivers in the game in Stefon Diggs. Their defense was phenomenal in 2019. One of the best in the league.
Over Under Win Totals Nfl
2 weak teams in the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins. Neither figure to do much unless the Football Gods have a miracle up their sleeves.
Let’s look at the Patriots. Right now their potential quarterbacks are Brian Hoyer and Jarrett Stidham. A journeyman and a 2nd-year player drafted on the last day of the draft. Lightning doesn’t strike twice often in the NFL if you know where I’m going with Stidham.
That said, the Bills would be great to bet an over and the Patriots would be safe to bet the under.
Yes, Bill Belichick is still in New England.
But it’s hard for even a good team to win without a decent quarterback. Just ask Mike Tomlin of the Pittsburgh Steelers.
I’m not telling you what to do and who to bet on. I’m just laying out examples clarifying what I mean here and nothing more.
3- Offseason Roster Moves
Did teams you’re targeting to wager win totals on receive offseason makeovers?
If so, stop.
Many of these teams might look good on paper, but in reality, you’ll rarely see them break out. It happens, but most of the time these are oddsmaker traps.
Teams who may have signed a marquee quarterback, but have little more to work with are examples.
Over Under Win Totals Nfl 2020
If a team overhauled their roster and most of the team hasn’t experienced playing together, it’s also a red flag.
Look for teams who’ve made roster moves to fill missing gaps. Too often, novice NFL gamblers will wager teams who made moves equivalent to what’s seen in Madden Franchise mode with the salary cap turned off.
This is real life, not a video game. Players need time to mesh and new rookies need time to get used to the NFL game. Some rookies adapt faster than others but they all go through growing pains.
Keep away from teams who are rebuilding and even if they nabbed a prize free agent or two, don’t be tempted. Teams like this might also make a blockbuster trade in the draft or before it. Again, stay away.
A good way to increase your odds of winning an over is to look for teams that are one or two pieces away.
Teams like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2020, who signed Tom Brady, are a good example. The Buccaneers already have one of the best receiving duos in football and now they added an accomplished quarterback.
They have a solid defense, ranking 15th in yards allowed in 2019. They held onto a lot of players.
They also have to compete with the New Orleans Saints in the NFC South and they play Green Bay and Minnesota, 2 more playoff teams from the year before.
Add in the Super Bowl 54 champions, the Kansas City Chiefs, and Tampa’s path isn’t the easiest.
The Bucs went 7-9 last season with Jameis Winston, who proved to be a turnover machine and constantly gave opponents a short field. They put up a lot of points with Winston, and now they have a quarterback who takes care of the ball.
Online Oddsmakers will have the Buccaneers ranked higher than in 2019. They’re also likely to have Green Bay and New Orleans, the latter being a division rival, with a higher win total.
CBS sports have 8 NFC teams chosen to win more than the Buccaneers, who are sitting at 9 as I write this. It’s what I mean when I say the Buccaneers are safer picks for an over.
4- Roster Stability
News recently broke that the New England Patriots traded longtime tight-end who took 2019 off to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to reunite with Tom Brady. Oddsmakers are upping Tampa’s win total as I write this.
Gronkowski and Brady won 3 Super Bowls together with the Patriots, and Gronkowski will be 31 when the 2020 season begins.
Anyone who wagers money on NFL win totals in 2020 will take a hard look at Tampa. The Bucs also have arguably the best pair of receivers in football in Curtis Godwin and Mike Evans.
They have a fair tight-end in O. J. Howard to team with Gronkowski.
Looking at Tampa’s roster outside Brady and Gronkowski, it’s relatively stable. There are a lot of names from the last 2 seasons who are still with the team today. Now, they inserted a quarterback who doesn’t specialize in throwing the ball to the other team 30 times a season.
They also have a proven winner with Bruce Arians at head coach. This is a primary example of a team with a solid, stable roster who added through the draft and free agency. The Bucs will be a smart pick for an over.
Anyone dissecting Cleveland’s roster last offseason should’ve known. They had a rookie head coach in Freddie Kitchens. They had 2 new starters in the defensive backfield. They traded for a player whose brand is larger than the city of Cleveland in Odell Beckham Jr.
Also, the Browns had discipline problems dating back to the preseason when sporting outlets reported the number of fights the team started in joint practices with the Colts.
The smart gambler would’ve stayed away from them.
Baker Mayfield jawed too often with the media. Myles Garrett missed the last 6 games after getting suspended for swinging a helmet at Steelers’ quarterback Mason Rudolph. Garrett was flagged earlier in the season for throwing an open-handed punch at Delanie Walker.
Over Under Win Totals Nfl 2021
Beckham continually drew attention to himself on things that weren’t football-related.
Again, any gambler who conducted research would’ve stayed away from the Browns.
The better bet for an over would’ve been the 14-2 Ravens, who hardly any oddsmaker had winning the AFC North prior to the 2019 preseason. Despite far more roster and coaching stability than Cleveland. Sure, they had a new quarterback, but most everything else was intact.
Especially the system the team had in place.
Don’t worry so much about who’s on the roster. It could be a roster full of Pro Bowl players but if they haven’t played together, they’re not a good wager. Even if oddsmakers say differently.
5- Research Divisions Other than Your Favorite Team’s
Over Under Win Totals Nfl 2020
I don’t care how much you say you won’t, you will always overrate your favorite team. And you will always underrate their division rivals. My recommendation is that you wager over-under win totals on the opposite conference.
The best thing for me to do is bet on the NFC.
Even if oddsmakers predict your favorite team will have lower win totals and it’s easier for them to overcome odds.
Over Under Win Totals Nfl 2021
Don’t bet on them. Go to the other conference and wager them.
Over Under Win Totals Nfl 2020
Conclusion
It seems like a lot, but it isn’t. If you follow the NFL year-round, pay attention to the league’s scheduling formula, and note who’s playing who, you will bet well predicting win totals.
And never bet the over if a team merely signed marquee players and drafted a few studs who never played on the same team.
There’s a lot that goes into increasing your odds on win totals and the best time to think about who you’re betting on is after the league schedule is generated in the spring, following the NFL Draft.